Real World Applications of the Hillary Effect
There is a perfect case study for the Obama Effect and the Hillary Effect this November in the Minnesota US Senate race between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Progressive challenger Al Franken. This is perhaps our best opportunity to take another Senate seat from the Republicans in the coming election. The polls currently have Franken and Coleman in a more or less dead heat. The latest from Rasmussen has Franken ahead by 3%, with movement on his side. However, if the race remains this close, turnout will determine the winner. This is where the Obama Effect and the Hillary Effect come into play.If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, I can pretty much guarantee Al Franken will not beat Norm Coleman. Hillary’s presence on the ballot will rally Republicans and send them to the polls like only she can, and they will tip the balance in Coleman’s favor. As I pointed out yesterday, the most recent general election poll in Minnesota, the only state (aside from DC) that voted against Reagan in 1984, has Hillary losing to McCain, 47% to 42%, while Obama whips McCain, 53% to 38%. The difference couldn’t be any starker. These numbers don’t even represent the increased Republican turnout from the Hillary Effect, so expect Hillary to lose Minnesota by a lot more than 5% if she is nominated, I’d be shocked if she could get within 10% of McCain.
On the other hand, if Obama is our nominee, instead of a wave of Republican voters flocking to the polls, we’ll have a wave of Obama supporters flocking to the polls, and just like in the case of Donna Edwards, this will be a huge boost for Franken. This scenario will play out in countless close races across American in November, which is perhaps the most important reason Hillary Clinton cannot be our nominee.
We have no way of testing the counterfactual of this hypothesis, as either we’ll see the Hillary Effect, or the Obama Effect, but not both, but all of the evidence, from polls, to Republican strategy, to common sense show that this will be the effect of a Hillary ticket or an Obama ticket. There is virtually no way to look at a Hillary ticket as anything other than a disaster for Democrats across the board. I should also note, for this same reason, any kind of “dream ticket” where Hillary is VP to Obama, or Obama is VP to Hillary, would also be a disaster, because the negative Hillary Effect will overrun any positive force, because that is how strong the negative feelings toward her are in this country. If we want to win, she can’t have any part of the Democratic ticket, end of story.